The Championship Says Antonelli. Austin Says Verstappen.

Kimi Antonelli arrives at COTA with a 102-point championship lead and his first chance to seal the title. But Max Verstappen has won four of the last five Austin Grands Prix, scored 115 points and stands one victory from Lewis Hamilton’s circuit record.

Formula 1 arrives in Austin with two favorites.

One owns the 2026 season. The other owns the Circuit of The Americas.

Kimi Antonelli leads the championship with 340 points, 102 ahead of Mercedes teammate George Russell. If Antonelli wins the United States Grand Prix, Russell finishes ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton finishes no higher than fifth, the 20-year-old will leave Austin as Formula 1’s new World Champion.

That should make Antonelli the obvious favorite.

COTA’s recent history says otherwise.

Austin has its own championship table

Take the current top six in the 2026 standings and count only the Grand Prix points they scored at COTA over the last five races. Sprint points are excluded.

Max Verstappen — 115 points
Charles Leclerc — 67
Lando Norris — 60
Lewis Hamilton — 49
George Russell — 37
Kimi Antonelli — 0

Antonelli’s zero requires context. He has raced only once at COTA, finishing 13th in 2025 after a collision with Carlos Sainz damaged his chances of scoring.

Verstappen’s number needs no qualification.

His results over the last five Austin Grands Prix are first, first, first, third and first. That is 115 points from five races, an average of 23 per Sunday. He has scored 48 more COTA points than Leclerc, the next-best driver among the current championship top six.

Go back a little further and the pattern becomes even stronger. Verstappen has finished on the COTA podium at every visit since 2018. That is seven consecutive podiums, beginning with his charge from 18th on the grid to second place.

Austin hasn’t simply been a successful track for Verstappen. It has been one of the most dependable relationships of his career.

Hamilton built the record. Verstappen built the takeover.

COTA has effectively belonged to two drivers.

Hamilton won the inaugural race in 2012, his final victory for McLaren, before adding four consecutive wins with Mercedes between 2014 and 2017. Five victories from COTA’s first six Grands Prix established a record that still stands.

Verstappen has since built a remarkably similar run.

He won in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Leclerc interrupted the streak by leading Ferrari to a one-two finish in 2024, but Verstappen returned to the top step in 2025.

Hamilton won five of COTA’s first six races. Verstappen has won four of the last five.

Together, they account for nine of the 13 Grands Prix held at the circuit.

A Verstappen victory on Sunday would move him level with Hamilton on five COTA wins. It would also break another tie: Red Bull and Mercedes currently have five victories each at the circuit.

If Verstappen wins, Red Bull becomes COTA’s most successful constructor and Verstappen matches its most successful driver on the same afternoon.

If Antonelli or Russell wins, Mercedes moves ahead instead. Hamilton can extend his personal record to six, while Leclerc can become the first driver outside Hamilton and Verstappen to win more than once at COTA.

Austin’s record book is waiting for somebody.

Pole position comes with a warning

Qualifying at COTA matters, but pole position has not provided the protection it normally carries at many circuits.

Across the 13 Grands Prix held in Austin, the winner has started:

From pole — six times
From second — five times
From fourth — once
From sixth — once

Second place on the grid has produced almost as many COTA victories as pole.

That doesn’t mean a poor qualifying result is harmless. Eleven of the 13 winners started from the front row, and Verstappen’s 2023 victory from sixth remains the only COTA win from outside the first two rows.

The distinction is important. At Austin, the front row is extremely valuable. Pole itself is not a guarantee.

The 250-meter uphill run into the wide first corner gives both front-row drivers room to attack. Hamilton passed polesitter Verstappen there in 2021. Three years later, Leclerc launched from fourth and emerged from the opening corner with the lead before winning the race.

Saturday will establish the contenders. Turn 1 may immediately reorder them.

A different Austin weekend in 2026

There is one more change that makes comparisons with the previous three races less straightforward.

After hosting Sprint weekends from 2023 through 2025, Austin returns to the traditional format this year. Teams will have three practice sessions before qualifying instead of one.

That gives Mercedes more time to understand the upgrade it introduced in Malaysia and gives every team a better opportunity to solve COTA’s difficult compromise.

The opening sector demands commitment and rapid changes of direction through corners inspired by Silverstone and Suzuka. The later stadium section is slower and more technical. Add the long back straight, heavy braking zones, tire wear and COTA’s uneven surface, and a car that excels in one part of the lap can surrender time somewhere else.

Mercedes arrives with the strongest results across the full season. Red Bull arrives with the strongest driver at this circuit and the winner of the last two Grands Prix.

For the first time this year, those two forms are colliding directly.

The season against the circuit

Antonelli can leave Austin as World Champion. Verstappen can leave tied with Hamilton as COTA’s most successful driver.

One has controlled 2026. The other has controlled this track.

The championship table says Antonelli.

Seven consecutive podiums, four wins in five races and 115 points say Verstappen.

Which one do you trust more at COTA: the driver who owns the season, or the driver Austin keeps choosing?