Five F1 Positions Still in Play: Who Will Gain and Who Will Fall?
Five Constructors’ Championship positions remain within reach with six rounds left—and recent form suggests at least one major change is coming. Leave your call in the comments.
By Miki | F1Unchained
Six rounds remain in the 2026 Formula 1 season, and several positions in the Constructors’ Championship are still far from settled.
McLaren leads Red Bull by seven points for third. Haas holds the same advantage over Audi for seventh. From there, only 11 points separate Audi, Williams, Aston Martin and Cadillac across the final four positions.
These fights matter beyond the number beside a team’s name. Final championship position helps determine each team’s share of Formula 1 prize money. At the same time, lower-ranked teams receive more aerodynamic testing time through F1’s sliding-scale system.
Nobody wants to fall down the standings, but every position carries financial and development consequences.
We ran a large number of simulations using the current gaps, championship points scored across the last five completed rounds and the six races still to come. Recent form covers Italy, Spain, Azerbaijan, the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia and Singapore, including the Singapore Sprint.
These percentages are projections, not guarantees.
Which team will gain a position before Abu Dhabi—and which team is most likely to fall? Leave your call in the comments.
P3: McLAREN OR RED BULL?
Current standings: McLaren 339, Red Bull 332
Last five rounds: McLaren 74, Red Bull 143
Projection: Red Bull 90%
McLaren owns the position. Red Bull owns the recent form.
Red Bull has scored nearly twice as many points as McLaren across the last five rounds. Max Verstappen’s victories at Sepang and Singapore accelerated that recovery, while McLaren left Baku with nothing and lost more points through its Singapore Sprint collision.
A seven-point advantage is small when the chasing team has been scoring at this rate. Our simulations make Red Bull the clear favorite to take third before the season ends.
P7: HAAS OR AUDI?
Current standings: Haas 30, Audi 23
Last five rounds: Haas 9, Audi 7
Projection: Haas 90%
This fight looks close until we consider how difficult midfield points can be to collect.
Haas has a seven-point cushion and has also narrowly outscored Audi across the latest five rounds. When two teams usually operate around the edge of the top 10, seven points carry more weight than they would near the front.
Audi remains close enough for one strong weekend to change the picture, but the combination of Haas’ existing lead and slightly better recent return gives it a substantial advantage in the projection.
P8: AUDI OR WILLIAMS?
Current standings: Audi 23, Williams 12
Last five rounds: Audi 7, Williams 1
Projection: Audi above 99%
Both the current standings and recent form point in the same direction.
Audi holds an 11-point advantage and has earned seven points across the last five rounds. Williams has scored only one during that period.
Williams is not mathematically eliminated from this fight, but our simulations produced very few paths in which it recovered enough points to move ahead. Of the five positions we tested, Audi retaining eighth is one of the strongest projections.
P9: WILLIAMS OR ASTON MARTIN?
Current standings: Williams 12, Aston Martin 7
Last five rounds: Williams 1, Aston Martin 4
Projection: Williams 85%
This is the most interesting midfield comparison.
Williams holds the five-point advantage, but Aston Martin has shown better recent form. Fernando Alonso’s eighth place at Sepang produced four points, while Williams’ only point across the same five-round period came from Carlos Sainz in Baku.
The projection still favors Williams because those 12 points are already secured and neither team has been scoring regularly. Aston Martin’s recent improvement gives this fight more uncertainty than the standings alone suggest.
P10: ASTON MARTIN OR CADILLAC?
Current standings: Aston Martin 7, Cadillac 0
Last five rounds: Aston Martin 4, Cadillac 0
Projection: Aston Martin above 99%
Cadillac has six rounds to score its first Constructors’ Championship points and erase Aston Martin’s seven-point advantage.
That remains possible, but the simulation gives it the lowest probability of any team trying to gain one of these five positions. Aston Martin has added four points during the latest five-round sample, while Cadillac remains on zero.
The model overwhelmingly favors Aston Martin to retain 10th.
THE PROJECTED CHANGE
Our simulations favor four teams currently holding their positions: Haas, Audi, Williams and Aston Martin.
The major projected change is Red Bull moving ahead of McLaren for third.
That conclusion is driven by recent scoring form, not by the seven-point gap alone. It can still be challenged by upgrades, reliability, penalties, incidents and the remaining Sprint weekends. The model does not know what will happen next. It shows what is most likely if the patterns we have already seen continue to influence the final six rounds.
After Abu Dhabi, we will return to all five projections and see what the season actually delivered.
— Miki
Respectful disagreement is welcome; personal attacks, abuse and spam will be removed.
